The long-running Australian Competition & Consumer Commission battle with the big supermarkets could end in court sooner rather than later if Woolworths boss Grant O'Brien is prepared to chance his arm on a hardware expansion in Ballarat.
The regulator is preparing for a legal challenge to any move by Woolworths to proceed with the proposed acquisition of three hardware stores in Victoria's Ballarat district under the Home and Hardware banner.
Investigations into the deal were suspended on June 22 and the regulator is mirroring its actions in the Rocherlea bottle shop case earlier this year.
Woolies eventually walked from that deal rather than mount an expensive test of the ACCC's merger powers over a small shop on the outskirts of Launceston.
Some say it may well do the same in Ballarat. Given it is already entering the market, it makes little sense to blatantly take out competitors to clear the path.
The hardware battle may have more significance for O'Brien. The retail behemoth is building a Masters Hardware store in Ballarat that is due to open next year.
It will compete with a couple of Bunnings stores, an independent store owned by Dahlsens and the three Home Hardware stores owned by G Gay & Co.
The Gay stores and Dahlsens are supplied by Woolies-controlled wholesaler Danks.
The proposed case on paper is a straightforward deal to take out a major competitor and effectively reduce consumer choice in the area from three and a bit to two and a bit - the bit being the Dahlsens store.
The ACCC has been looking at the deal since February and, as with the Rocherlea case, has gathered evidence and witnesses prepared to back its case should Woolies take on the regulator.
ACCC boss Rod Sims has made it clear that he is watching the big retailers closely and the Ballarat case falls squarely within his concerns, being an easily defined market 50km from the nearest town and an obvious three-into-two market concentration.
While O'Brien assesses his odds, his liquor team is also pressing for a hardline on the two remaining pubs sought in NSW.
Woolies has managed to buy 30 of the 32 outlets it wanted. So far the ACCC is holding out on the Albion Park Hotel near Wollongong and the Chittaway Bay Hotel on the central coast.
The next move will come from O'Brien.
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